Seasonal

NCEP Temperature Probabilities Jan 11-18. Click to enlarge

BBBRRRrrrr!! Starting this weekend, a series of systems will usher in the coldest air we've seen so far this season.

By Garret Hartung (Wilkes East resident)
Climate Science Undergrad, Oregon State University

With this cold air in place next week (Jan 11-18), any system swinging in moisture from the Pacific has the potential to bring winter precipitation to the lowest elevations. In typical Pacific Northwest fashion, this forecast is complicated, so its best to break it down into a few categories: what we do know, what is uncertain, and how can you be prepared.

What We Do Know:

• Temperatures are expected to be well below the average high of 46°F for this time of year. The NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) is showing an 80% or greater probability of below normal temperatures in our area for next week. High temperatures are looking to be in the low 30’s starting Tuesday with lows in the mid to lower 20’s. It wouldn’t be too shocking to see temperatures dip below 20°F in this set up. There is still some uncertainty in regard to how cold it will get, there are a few models showing temperatures even lower than what was mentioned above but confidence in that is very low
• The east wind should be howling during this period. This is where most of the cold air will come from. Depending on the exact strength and location of a system we could see gusts exceeding 40mph, which is strong but not out of the ordinary for our area. Typically, we see a few 40+mph gusts from the east each year. This could lead to some very cold wind chills, probably getting into the teens or lower for some days.
• The upper level pattern is conductive of storms developing off the coast. For most of next week, temperatures should be cold enough in Portland to support snow at the valley floor. It’s appears fairly certain we should see some precipitation in this period.

What is Uncertain:

• A few models are showing extremely cold temperatures in our area that haven’t been seen in decades. While I wouldn’t bet on that occurring, there is a small possibility that does occur. For example, the latest run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) model has lows in the single digits. While other models keep us in the 20’s/30’s.
• The big question is how much precipitation we will get. Models have been showing anything from nothing to a 2008-like event for the Portland area. There are several factors that are leading to this uncertainty. The main thing is the track and strength of the storms that may or may not form. A stronger storm may produce more precipitation but could also bring in warm air from the south to keep us above freezing. A storm tracking too far north could do the same thing, while a storm tracking too far south may leave us cold but dry. We won’t know the exact strength and track of a storm till about 3 days out. So, any estimates of the amount of snowfall we could get should be questioned until we are with in 36 hours of the event. This was an issue last year when crazy model outputs were being shared on social media, causing some what of a panic. I will say that the models are starting to zero in on Thursday as out potential big snow day, but specific details will change in the coming days.

How to prepare:

• Winterize your home if you haven’t done so yet this winter. In particular shut off and cover outside faucets and make sure the pipes in your home are ready for the coldest temps of the season thus far. If you have a generator for your home, make sure its good on fuel and you know how to connect it properly. Freezing rain is not out of the question for this event, especially for areas exposed to the gorge winds.
• Stock your car on winter survival gear. Have chains or traction tires ready if you need to travel this week. Things like some food, water, kitty litter, and other supplies you may need if your car gets stuck.
• Have a plan. Should we have a high impact winter event, be prepared with food (for you and your pet) and medicine in your home and try not to travel. Think about things you’d need if you can’t leave the house for a couple days. It’s also good to think about potential loss of power. Keep your phone charged and have flashlights ready.
• Be weather ready! Stay informed by paying attention to local media outlets and the National Weather Service for the latest forecasts and warnings. These men and women know the area and know how snow events play out more so than the app on your phone.

The bottom line is that cold weather is expected and all types of winter precipitation including snow and freezing rain could occur next week. So be prepared for impactful weather.

It’s better to prepare for an event and it doesn’t occur than to not be prepared if it does.

During extremely cold weather or winter storms, staying warm and safe can be a challenge.

Winter storms can bring cold temperatures, strong winds, power failures, loss of communications, and icy roads.

Here's a list of groceries and emergency supplies you need in case of snow.

Items that don’t require refrigeration or heat to prepare

• Nut butters, jams and jellies
• Fresh fruits and vegetables
• Dried fruits and nuts
• Juices (particularly those that are not commonly found in the refrigerator section of the supermarket)
• Breads, muffins, bagels, tortillas
• Dry cereal or granola
• Canned milk or non-dairy milk in aseptic cartons
• Protein bars and protein shakes
• Jarred sauces such as salsa, ketchup, or mustard.
• Pickles or foods preserved in vinegar
• Hard cheeses, such as cheddar, Swiss, provolone and parmesan, processed cheeses, and Edam (just make sure the cheese is well wrapped and sealed)

Other items to add to your list if you don’t have them

• A non-electric can opener
• Charcoal or propane for the outdoor grill
• Pet food
• Kitty litter
• Paper towels, paper plates, and plastic utensils (useful if the power goes out and you can’t wash dishes)
• Toilet paper
• Water (1 gal per person per 3 days)

Other storm essentials

• Rock salt for melting ice on sidewalks and driveway
• An ice scraper for your car’s windshield
• A sturdy snow shovel
• Foam insulation covers for exterior faucets
• First-aid kit
• Flashlight, with batteries
• Extra batteries, just in case

Good to have on hand when you’re going to be cooped-up

• Favorite baking supplies for cookies and quickbread (flour, sugar, salt, eggs, butter)
• Cartons of chicken or vegetable broth for making soup (a good excuse to use up what’s already in your vegetable bin)
• Canned soup
• Comfort food (mac ‘n’ cheese, pasta, potatoes. yum)
• Favorite snacks (popcorn, chips, etc.)
• Apple cider
• Coffee and tea
• Wine and beer
• Liquor

Now that you're ready you can relax and enjoy a snow day!

Source: The Oregonian/Oregonlive.com

Old Fashion Holiday When: Sat, Dec 07, 2019 12PM-4PM Where: Zimmerman House 17111 NE Sandy Blvd. Get Map!

The 1874 Zimmerman Heritage Farm House will offer “Magic of a German Holiday,” as well as the contents of a traveling trunk found in the house, which belonged to Isobel Zimmerman’s uncle, Andrew McCall.

For more information, contact us at 503-618-0946 or visit echohistory.org.

Amazing Sound! When: Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:30PM-3PM Where: Pioneer Courthouse Square 701 SW 6th Ave Get Map!

Don't Miss This Holiday Favorite!
Downtown will pulse with the melodic sounds of big brass as nearly 300 tubas play in unison for the 29th Annual Tuba Christmas Concert in the heart of downtown Portland. This seasonal performance is FREE for the public.

Do you play tuba?
Come join the fun! You can register to play in this years Tuba Christmas here.

Old Fashion Holiday When: Sat, Dec 14, 2019 12PM-4PM Where: Zimmerman House 17111 NE Sandy Blvd. Get Map!

The 1874 Zimmerman Heritage Farm House will offer “Magic of a German Holiday,” as well as the contents of a traveling trunk found in the house, which belonged to Isobel Zimmerman’s uncle, Andrew McCall.

For more information, contact us at 503-618-0946 or visit echohistory.org.

A Holiday "Must See"! When: Wed, Dec 18, 2019 1:30PM-9PM Where: Meet at Gresham City Hall 1333 NW Eastman Pky Get Map!

• Distance: 4 miles
• Difficulty: Easy
• Elevation gain: Nominal
• Trail conditions: Mostly pavement with a small section of gravel trail in the park.
• Round-trip travel: By MAX
• Suggested donation per rider: TriMet fare required

This fun afternoon and evening will begin with a MAX Blue Line ride to the Moda Center stop where we will get off and walk a short distance to get on the MAX Yellow Line to ride to our next stop at Killingsworth. Here we will walk a 2.3-mile loop along the PCC-Cascade Campus and through the Humbolt Neighborhood to Peninsula Park. We'll walk through the beautiful 1913-era park and rose garden and into the Peidmont Neighborhood. Here, we will walk past the award-winning housing development, Villa St. Rose, which was once a Catholic convent and girls school Next, we'll head back to the MAX line and ride to the Kenton Neighborhood. After a photo-op with the Paul Bunyan statue, we will walk about two blocks to our dinner destination at the Kenton Station Pub. After dinner we will walk a few blocks to the historic Victorian Belle Mansion for our Christmas lights viewing. You'll be able to tour the mansion and walk the 2.5-acre estate that will be filled with twinkling lights and Christmas decorations. In addition, this year they are hosting a local artisan Christmas Market, there will be live music and holiday food and drink available for purchase from the Victorian Belle kitchen. Tickets to the venue are $8 for adults and $4 for seniors. Tickets are available at the door. On-line tickets will be available at a future date. We will send out the on-line ticket information when it becomes available. After our visit to the Victorian Belle, we will head back to the Kenton MAX station for the ride back to Gresham (Yellow MAX line then transfer to Blue MAX line). Our walking between the Blue MAX line and the Yellow MAX line (both ways), around the Peninsula Park loop, to dinner in Kenton, to the Victorian Belle and back to the MAX station equals about 4 miles total walking for the afternoon/evening.

Bring water and snacks for the trail. Comfortable walking shoes are recommended.

Note: Note the afternoon start time. Please purchase your fare for the MAX ride prior to meeting in City Hall. Do not park in the back fenced area at City Hall; it gets locked at night. We suggest you park in the park and ride lot by the Gresham City Hall MAX station.

For more information about this hike please contact Doug or Dana Duval at 907-230-6543 or danakol24@aol.com.

Senior Healthy Hikers asks that participants be 50 or older. A couple wishing to hike is welcome if one member of the couple is 50 or better.

Pets are not permitted on our hikes or walks.

Senior Healthy Hikers member guidelines

Old Fashion Holiday When: Sat, Dec 21, 2019 12PM-4PM Where: Zimmerman House 17111 NE Sandy Blvd. Get Map!

The 1874 Zimmerman Heritage Farm House will offer “Magic of a German Holiday,” as well as the contents of a traveling trunk found in the house, which belonged to Isobel Zimmerman’s uncle, Andrew McCall.

For more information, contact us at 503-618-0946 or visit echohistory.org.

		Simple Solution. Big Reward. After big holiday meals, no one likes to be stuck doing the clean-up. But if you aren't careful with leftover gravy, pan drip-pings and sauces a grease-clogged drain could ruin your holiday and cost you a bundle.

When fats, oils and grease are poured down the drain, they stick to the inside of pipes causing messy sewer backups and expensive cleanup and repair.

The solution:
Pour the grease into a can, freeze it, and toss the can in the trash!

Historic Kerns When: Thu Sep 05, 2019 6PM-8PM Meet:Oregon Park, NE Corner at NE 30th and Oregon Get Map! Cost: Free!

Let's Go Walking!
Join us on another great Ten Toe Express walk throughout inner-city Portland sponsored by the Portland Bureau of Transportation. The Ten Toe Express program is a series of guided walks held Thursdays @ 6PM and Saturdays @ 9AM from May 2nd through September 14th 2019.

Each easy and informal Ten Toe Express walk explores the area neighborhood, architecture and unique history. Walk takes about 2 hours, cover 3.5 - 4.5 miles and are open to all ages and skill levels. Did we mention it's free!

Take TriMet!
For your convenience, all walks begin and end along TriMet routes. Use TriMet’s Trip Planner (click here) or call 503-238-RIDE (7433) for help in finding the right bus, train, or streetcar for you.

For more details, contact Rich Cassidy: rich.cassidy@portlandoregon.gov or 503-823-6051.

For even more guided walks, check out NeighborWalks. NeighborWalks is a collaborative community walking program brought to you by AARP Oregon, City of Portland Bureau of Transportation and Oregon Walks. See the full schedule here.

(2019 Ten Toe Express schedule below this break)